Indonesia plans to implement B40 in January
Because case, prices might rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke states
B40 will need extra 3 mln tons feedstock, GAPKI states
Malaysia palm oil benchmark at highest considering that mid-2022
India might withdraw import tax hike amid inflation, Mistry says
(Adds analyst comments, updates Malaysia's palm oil criteria cost)
By Bernadette Christina
NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is forecast to recover in 2025 after an expected drop this year, but costs are anticipated to stay elevated due to planned expansion of the country's biodiesel mandate, market experts said.
The palm oil standard rate in Malaysia has actually risen more than 35% this year, lifted by slow output and Indonesia's strategy to increase the necessary domestic biodiesel mix to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to decrease fuel imports.
Palm oil output next year in top manufacturer Indonesia is expected to recuperate by 1.5 million metric lots compared with an estimated drop of just over a million tons this year, Julian McGill, managing director at Glenauk Economics, informed the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.
Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research firm Oil World, said he expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million lots next year after a 2.5 million load drop in 2024.
While Indonesia's output is forecast to enhance, provide from in other places and of other vegetable oils is seen tightening up.
Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is anticipated to dip slightly next year after increasing by an estimated 1 million heaps in 2024.
"We would require a healing in palm in 2025 due to the fact that combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are decreasing," Mielke said.
'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE
The price rise in palm oil in the previous 7 weeks has been "frightening" for buyers, Mielke said, including that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia imposes the so-called B40 policy.
The Indonesia Palm Oil Association stated additional feedstock of around 3 million heaps will be needed for B40 implementation, deteriorating export supply.
The current palm oil premium has actually already caused palm to lose market share against other oils, Mielke added.
Malaysian palm oil prices are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric lot in 2025, McGill of Glenauk estimated.
Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the greatest because mid-2022.
"Sentiment right now is red-hot and extremely bullish, we have to beware," said Dorab Mistry, director at Indian customer goods business Godrej International.
He forecast the Malaysian rate around 5,000 ringgit and above up until June 2025.
Mielke and Mistry urged Indonesia to
consider delaying
B40 execution on issue about its influence on food consumers.
Meanwhile, Mistry expected top palm oil India to withdraw its
import responsibility walking
imposed from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy
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Indonesia Palm Oil Output Seen Recovering in 2025, However Biodiesel
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